Although a collision is considered highly unlikely, Apophis is still one of the largest asteroids to come so close to Earth in recent times.
A massive asteroid, officially designated 99942 Apophis and often referred to as the ‘God of Chaos’, has recently had its trajectory reassessed, reigniting concerns that it could potentially be on a collision course with Earth. Initially discovered in 2004, Apophis was believed to have a 2.7% chance of striking Earth in 2029. However, subsequent observations ruled out any risk of impact in both 2029 and 2036.
Despite this reassurance, recent revisions of Apophis’s trajectory have raised new questions about its future path and the potential threat it may pose to Earth. Canadian space expert Paul Wiegert has contributed to the ongoing discussion, suggesting that while Apophis is on track for a close approach, there is a minute possibility that a collision with a smaller space object could alter its course. Wiegert estimates the likelihood of such an event happening is roughly one in two billion.
In his analysis, Wiegert explains that for Apophis to have its trajectory altered, it would need to be struck by a smaller object at least 3.4 meters in size, traveling at a speed of over 510 meters per second. Even if this were to occur, the odds of the asteroid being redirected toward Earth are extremely low—estimated at just 5%, according to a report by The Mirror US.
To put these odds into perspective, the probability of a catastrophic collision remains incredibly slim, with a less than 1 in 2 billion chance—comparable to winning the lottery multiple times. While the risk remains minimal, Apophis continues to be closely monitored as it prepares for its near-Earth flyby